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RFS Advance Access originally published online on February 21, 2006
Review of Financial Studies 2006 19(3):753-795; doi:10.1093/rfs/hhj029
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.

International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk

Michael J. Brennan
Anderson School, UCLA, University of Manchester

Yihong Xia
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Address correspondence to the Michael Brennan, Anderson School, UCLA, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481. E-mail: mbrennan{at}anderson.ucla.edu.

Relations between foreign exchange risk premia, exchange rate volatility, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels for the underlying currencies, are derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets. As predicted, the volatility of exchange rates is significantly associated with the estimated volatility of the relevant pricing kernels, and foreign exchange risk premia are significantly related to both the estimated volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates. The estimated foreign exchange risk premia mostly satisfy Fama’s (1984) necessary conditions for explaining the forward premium puzzle, but the puzzle remains in several cases even after taking account of the pricing kernel volatilities.


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