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RFS Advance Access published online on May 25, 2005

Review of Financial Studies, doi:10.1093/rfs/hhi027
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© The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oupjournals.org
Received June 26, 2004

Article

The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content1

George J. Jiang 1* and Yisong S. Tian 2*
1 Finance Department, Eller College of Business, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721-0108
2 Finance Area, Schulich School of Business, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
George J. Jiang, E-mail: gjiang{at}eller.arizona.edu
Yisong S. Tian, E-mail: ytian{at}schulich.yorku.ca


   Abstract

Britten-Jones and Neuberger (2000) derive a model-free implied volatility under the diffusion assumption. In this paper, we extend their model-free implied volatility to asset price processes with jumps and develop a simple method for implementing it using observed option prices. In addition, we perform a direct test of the informational efficiency of the option market using the model-free implied volatility. Our results from the S&P 500 index options suggest that the model-free implied volatility subsumes all information contained in the Black-Scholes implied volatility and past realized volatility and is a more efficient forecast for future realized volatility.


1We would like to thank Yacine Aït-Sahalia (the editor), an anonymous referee, Stewart Hodges, Chris Lamoureux, Nathaniel O’Connor, Wulin Suo, Shu Yan, Hao Zhou, and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Board, the University of Toronto, and the University of Warwick for helpful comments and suggestions. The financial support of the Social Sciences and Humanity Research Council of Canada is gratefully acknowledged.
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